Return To The Raw Material Standard Or Continue The Role Of Commodity &Nbsp; Price Is The Key.

The time when raw materials are traded purely as means of production is gone forever. commodity Feature spillover futures are gradually infiltrating into the spot market.

The value chain with regular rules can not be sorted out. In 2010, the textile raw material market in the fourth quarter was red. There must be a demand factor. But the craziness of 500 yuan, 1000 yuan or 3000 yuan in one day was obviously out of touch with the basic relationship between supply and demand.

In addition to cotton and PTA futures, the two commodities are arrogant and the spot price of cotton is irrational. Spin Upstream raw materials collectively riveted the big name "fan Er".

In the four quarter of 2010, the record of textile raw materials refreshed the most frequent record breaking record in history.

Under the action of reducing planting area, increasing the price of agricultural products and intervening speculation of peripheral funds, China's cotton in 2010 Price It not only created the highest record in 10 years in China, but also broke through the peak of international cotton price in 15 years.

As of December 31st, the ICE cotton contract in March closed up 1.97 cents to 144.81 cents / pound, the annual cumulative increase of 91.50%, the highest point since the 1.5 century.

In early November, viscose staple fiber market entered the white hot state. In the first week of November, the price of products such as the company of richda and Australia rose to 28000 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan per ton compared with the previous week, the highest weekly gain in history.

In late December, international oil prices jumped continuously, rewriting the highest price in nearly 27 months, and the rebound of polyester raw material PTA was strong.

The increase in demand is indeed the foundation of the price rise of raw materials. According to customs statistics, 1~11 months in 2010, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 186 billion 620 million US dollars, up 24.2% from the same period last year, an increase of 11.7% over the whole year of 2009. Forced by the earliest cost of cotton, many garment enterprises reduce the cotton content in the garments, and increase the polyester and polyester cotton content accordingly. From the cotton price rise and fall in November, the cotton yarn output increased 6.2% in the same month, the growth rate dropped 5.6 and 1 percentage points respectively compared with September and October. The production of chemical fiber and cotton blended yarn increased by 22% over the same month, and the proportion increased 3.2 percentage points.

And the biggest spearhead of raw material price increase generally refers to the currency of super development. "Press the gourd to float." Xu Xiaonian, a professor at the China Europe International Business School, believes that this is the result of excessive money being poured into the economy. Data show that in the 14 months from November 2008 to December 2009, bank credit grew by nearly 11 trillion yuan, and in 2010 October, China's new loans amounted to nearly 7 trillion yuan. A large number of credit did not enter the economic entity, but entered the property market, commodities and other fields, resulting in asset bubbles further increased.

In order to curb the trend of excessive price rise, a series of new combinations of price regulation and control have been promulgated, and the intensity and means have been renovated. The "high fever" textile raw material market has obviously cooled down, and the prices of cotton, polyester staple fiber, polyester filament and other products have also gone down at the same time. The first to take the lead was first accepted.

After playing a roaming price, raw materials play a hard role in the short term, but the effectiveness of the policy is still there. Returning to the raw material standard or risking the continuation of the commodity role? The key is the price.