Turning Into The Turning Point Of PX Overcapacity In Asia In 2014

< p > 2013, China's newly added "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "PX" production capacity < /a > is expected to reach 2 million 850 thousand tons, including the two unit of Tenglong aromatics 800 thousand tons put into operation in the third quarter, 650 thousand tons of Pengzhou Petrochemical Company and 600 thousand tons of Hainan refinery in the fourth quarter.

In other parts of Asia, there are more than 2 million 400 thousand tonnes of new capacity including India ONGC, Saudi Amy and Total and Singapore aromatics.

At the same time, as the first largest export country for PX, South Korea will increase its exports by the end of 2013 to next year.

With the further production of new capacity in the future, under this background, PX will turn to PTA after being overloaded.

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< p > at the same time, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a > overcapacity is obvious.

At present, the capacity of the global PTA industry is increasing rapidly. In the next 5 years, the global PTA will be in a predicament of oversupply. Especially in the Asian region, the new wave of PTA capacity starts to come in 2012~2014 years, which will push the market into the stage of oversupply.

In 2012 and 2013, China's PTA industry entered a new peak of capacity expansion, and its capacity increased rapidly.

In 2012, 60% of the new capacity directly pushed the PTA industry into a deficit situation. Even in the year when the new capacity in 2013 was relatively small, PTA production capacity remained at 33 million 100 thousand tons throughout the year.

It is estimated that the overcapacity of domestic PTA will continue in 2014.

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At the beginning of P, corporate profits (estimated by PX price) were once below -600 yuan / ton, and remained at -400 yuan / ton after that.

With the new round of PTA expansion in 2014, the production cash flow of PTA will continue to remain low in 2014.

Production losses are serious, which will lead PTA producers to take measures to reduce production losses in order to reduce losses. The overall operating rate of PTA is also declining. The average operating rate in 2013 is about 77%, which has dropped by nearly 10 percentage points compared with the average of 87.7% in 2012. It is estimated that the load will start to decline to 73% in 2014.

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< p > cost is characterized by overcapacity. Due to the overcapacity of domestic PTA industry, most PTA factories fail to change the situation of PTA social inventory even if they continue to reduce production and reduce the load and postpone new capacity.

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< p > 2013, China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester production < /a > is expected to reach 31 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 7% compared with 29 million 800 thousand tons in 2012.

In 2014, the production capacity of polyester was only about 4 million 500 thousand tons to 5 million tons, and the growth rate of polyester production was expected to be stable at 7% compared with 2013.

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< p > 2013, polyester industry was in a low ebb, slicing, staple fiber and filament were all depleted, and the loss of some varieties reached the maximum in recent years.

In the second half of 2013, the polyester industry plunged into a huge loss and had to cope with the drop in operating rate.

It is estimated that during the Spring Festival of 2014, the production capacity of downstream polyester factories will reach a record high, and the parking capacity of polyester production capacity will reach more than 600 tons.

Compared with historical data, polyester loading is maintained at a high level.

Under this load, polyester stock is still on the rise.

With the end of the boom period of polyester industry, the polyester production rate will further decline, and the high storage of products will become normal. Polyester enterprises can only effectively reduce their inventory by reducing their own load.

It can be predicted that in a longer period of time, the starting rate of polyester will be between 75% and 80%.

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< p > slow recovery and slow demand.

In the first 11 months of 2013, the added value of the textile industry increased by 8.5% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 2 percentage points year-on-year, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the industrial added value of all above scale.

In the main products, the output of yarn, cloth and clothing increased by 8.3%, 5.6% and 0.7%, respectively. The growth rate dropped 6.4, 5.3 and 5.7 percentage points year-on-year.

Export growth is generally stable.

The shortage of funds, the continuous appreciation of RMB, the continuous rise of labor costs, and the obvious lack of demand for polyester market.

It is expected that the steady demand for domestic consumption and the revival of external demand are expected to revive, and the continued sluggish demand for the overall operation of the textile industry will be improved.

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