Zheng Cotton Futures, Which Have Been Silent For A Long Time, Will "Wake Up".

< p > careful a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > investment < /a > found that since the beginning of the year, the total position of Zheng cotton has been increasing.

With the withdrawal of purchasing and storage policy, the cotton market will enter the market and further increase its volatility.

The market has good expectations for Zheng cotton's later vitality, and the long sleepy Zheng cotton futures will be "waken up".

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< p > < strong > withdrawing from storage policy, the cotton price will go to marketization < /strong > < /p >

< p > the state has opened up its storage for three consecutive years, leaving the domestic market out of touch with the international market, and the Zheng cotton market has lost its vitality.

At the end of March 2014, the cotton purchase and storage work in 2013 will be concluded. In 2014, the state will implement direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang. The change of policy will change the pattern of cotton market. First, the iron price of the purchase and storage price will be lost, and the cotton price will return to the market. Finally, it will be decided by the supply and demand game. Second, the domestic and foreign cotton price differentials will return. Since 2012, the price difference has been maintained at 3000 yuan / ton, the highest even exceeding 5000 yuan / ton. Under the background of global integration, this is seriously deviated from the law of value.

In the futures market, that is, the factors that affect the price fluctuation will increase. Any factor that will affect the economic situation, market sentiment and supply and demand will have a price on the left and right sides. Undoubtedly, the vitality of cotton futures will be strengthened, and the customers and investment funds of the cotton industry will be reopened.

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< p > < strong > in the inventory environment, the reserve price becomes a new pressure level < /strong > < /p >

< p > three consecutive years of open acquisition, has made the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp "Guo Chu" /a "warehouse" full of trouble.

In the year of 2011, the total price of 19800 yuan / ton was about 3 million 250 thousand tons. In the 2012 year, the total price of 20400 yuan / ton was about 6 million 500 thousand tons. In the 2013 year, although the storage and storage in the 2013 year ended, the total reserves were expected to exceed 6 million 300 thousand tons.

As a result, the total reserves exceed 16 million tons.

In the meantime, the amount of dumping and storage (up to now) is about 4 million 800 thousand tons.

Simple calculation shows that the net storage volume exceeds 11 million tons.

Coupled with the original stock of the state treasury and the imported cotton purchased annually by the state, the existing cotton reserves in the State Reserve are close to the domestic consumption for two years.

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< p > storage capacity and capital pressure brought by reserve cotton are also one of the important reasons why the country no longer continues to open and store.

Relevant departments have indicated that in the coming years, inventory will be the main.

In 2014, the state will strictly control the issuance of import quotas, and the market gap will be borne by the national cotton reserves. Therefore, the placing price of cotton reserves will become an important pressure spot in the market.

At present, the state has put cotton into the market at auction price of 18000 yuan / ton, and the demand business is only auctions on demand.

After the new cotton is listed, the price center of gravity will move further down, and it will be difficult to raise 18000 yuan / ton.

At present, the market has been rumored that the latter will lower the dumping price and match the import quotas.

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Under the market mechanism of P > strong >, cotton price may be directly directed towards production cost < /strong > /p >

< p > global cotton supply is loose, inventory consumption ratio is at a record high, and state reserve stocks are high. In such a bad environment, domestic cotton prices may fall directly to production cost lines or even lower.

The author roughly estimated that the cost of planting the contracted households in Xinjiang last year was 2300 yuan / mu, and the production cost of lint was about 11000 yuan / ton according to the average yield of 600 kg, the average lint percentage 39%, and the processing cost of 900 yuan / ton.

In other words, if the market is not good, cotton prices may fall to 11000 yuan / ton.

Of course, this is the worst prediction.

But it also illustrates the problem that under the market mechanism, the fluctuation of cotton prices will increase.

In the preceding paragraph, we expect cotton prices to exceed 18000 yuan / ton in 2014, and cotton prices fluctuate by 7000 yuan / ton.

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To sum up, the change in the direction of the national policy of the new year will inevitably lead to an increase in the fluctuation of cotton prices. The long silence of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "Zheng cotton < /a" futures will come back to P.

Judging from the huge inventory and weak demand in China, cotton prices are likely to fall and rise. Cotton processing enterprises must pay close attention to the opportunity to sell insurance at the later stage.

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