Western Securities: Recent Worries About Inflation Constraints

< p > Strategy Perspective: current economic growth continues to stabilize.

China's exports have been moderately improved, fiscal expenditure has been hedging against the downward trend of the real estate industry chain, and the third industry is booming.

We believe that the stability of the economy will continue. The bottom line of policy will continue. The central bank will continue to be relaxed and the trend of financing costs will be downward. The construction of the system will be favorable and the market risk appetite will rebound.

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< p > < a href= "http://? Www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > inflation constraint < /a > recent worries.

CPI grew by 2.3% in July, slightly higher than market expectations, but far below the government's 3.5% policy cap.

Considering that the current cycle of pig industry is relatively mild, the low price of labor force is slowing down, which is conducive to stabilizing the prices of agricultural products.

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In the medium term, P inflation will become obvious.

< a href= "http://? Www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp >" NDRC "/a" recently said that the price will be liberalized in the second half of the year, and the pork price rate has entered a new round of upward cycle. This year's monetary easing may also increase inflationary pressure in the future.

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< p > financing costs trend downward.

In July, < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > monetary credit data < /a > significantly lower than expected, economic data is also weak, and inflation constraint is not worrying in the near future, it is expected that the central bank may further intensify directional easing.

Reducing financing costs is of great importance to long-term economic restructuring and structural optimization.

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< p > the policy guidance of the central bank's guiding cost of capital will continue for a long time.

And financing costs or capital interest rates will help improve the profitability of non-financial enterprises and raise the market valuation level.

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< p > the trend of the future market will move upward.

Looking to the future, from a fundamental point of view, the current pattern of economic growth will continue to stabilize, and the direction of loose monetary policy and positive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented.

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< p > overall, we believe that the stability of the economy will continue. The bottom line of policy will continue. The central bank will continue to be relaxed and the trend of financing costs will be downward. The construction of the system will be favorable and the market risk appetite will rebound.

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