Tian Hongliang: The US Dollar Is Down, And The Short-Term Performance Is Not Good.

Yesterday, the US dollar index went up and down. The US dollar index for the day was mainly reduced by the number of unemployed Americans in the United States to a 14 year low and better industrial output data, which eased the market's anxiety to a certain extent. Fed officials Brad's speech also boosted market sentiment. He said the Fed could postpone the time to stop buying debt. The US industrial output unexpectedly increased in September, the biggest increase since September 2012, mainly helped by the surge in public equipment output and the rebound in manufacturing output. The data released by the Federal Reserve yesterday showed that the US industrial output rate increased by 1% in September, with an expected growth of 0.4%, while the former value was revised down by 0.2%. The number of jobless claims in the US after last week's quarterly adjustment dropped unexpectedly, the lowest level in nearly 14 years, indicating that the improvement of the US employment market continued. Data released by the US Department of labor yesterday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 23 thousand to 264 thousand in the week of October 11th, the lowest since April 2000, with a forecast of 290 thousand people, with a value of 287 thousand. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims in the week of October 11th was 284 thousand, the lowest since June 2000, with a value of 288 thousand. By the week of October 11th, U.S.A The number of initial jobless claims has been below 300 thousand for five consecutive weeks, the longest record since 2006. If this momentum continues, the US employment market this year will be the best since 1999.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad said yesterday that if the inflation expectations in the US market were down, the Fed should postpone the end of QE. However, he still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the spring of 2015. Brad said, "for the Fed, inflation expectations downward is a very serious problem. Therefore, the Fed should suspend the reduction of inflation expectations. He said the US macroeconomic fundamentals are "strong" and still expect us GDP growth to reach 3% this year. In addition, the rise in the US dollar is a relatively small factor in terms of economic impact.

From a technical point of view, yesterday dollar The rebound was blocked under the 20 day moving average, and the 5 day moving average of the 10 and 20 day moving average of the dead line was on the empty side. From the analysis of the time period, the US dollar index could be extended to the end of this month, and the trend of resumption of inflation in November may be larger. There are still opportunities for short term short selling of the US dollar, but we should pay attention to the fast forward and quick exit, in order to prevent the US dollar from returning to the US or the US dollar short. Today, the resistance of the US dollar index to short-term rise is 85.10 - 85.15, and the short-term resistance is 85.30 - 85.35. The dollar index's support for today's callback is between 84.65 and 84.70, with significant support from 84.35 to 84.40. The euro / dollar fell back to around 1.2700 yesterday, and there is still room for rebound. The resistance to rebound is at 1.2900, and the resistance is 1.3000. The euro / US dollar only has a firm footing above 1.3000, which will limit the reversal of the larger midline market. Otherwise, it will be the best opportunity for the empty side to sell.

The US dollar is mainly short selling today, breaking the stops and stopping the losses. If there are more than 30 profit points, we will set a good stop to win. Before we open the market, we will withdraw all the outstanding transactions. This strategy is suitable for margin and can be taken as a reference.

The US dollar index can be sold at the upper limit of the 85.35----84.65 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Euro / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 1.2860--1.2730 interval, effectively break 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

GBP / USD: it can be bought at the lower limit of the 1.6160----1.6050 interval, effectively breaking the 40 point stop loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the interval.

USD / CHF: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 0.9460----0.9360 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / JPY: it can be bought at the lower limit of the 106.60----105.60 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the upper limit of the interval.

Australian dollar / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 0.8830----0.8710 interval, effectively break 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

USD / Canadian Dollar: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 1.1330---1.1200 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Gold: it can be sold at the upper limit of 1245 - 1230, effectively breaking the position of $5, and the target is in the lower limit of the interval.

Silver: it can be sold at the upper limit of 17.60 - 17.20, effectively breaking the position of 0.15 US dollars, and the target is in the lower limit of the interval.