Zhou Xiaochuan: We Should Take Economic Growth And Inflation Indicators More Seriously Than M2.

On the 6 day, Zhou Xiaochuan, vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and governor of the people's Bank of China, said that we should not place too much emphasis on controlling M2 in a fixed number. We should take the indicators of economic growth and inflation more seriously than M2.

Many central banks in the world no longer use M2 as an important goal of macroeconomic regulation and control.

But theoretically speaking, M2 is an intermediary target of the central bank, and is an economic observer.

It helps.

But as the economic situation changes, the relationship between M2 and macroeconomic regulation and control, inflation and economic growth is not very stable.

Zhou Xiaochuan said that on the one hand, we should continue to regard M2 as an important indicator of macroeconomic regulation and control, and at the same time, we should also change with the times and the payment system.

To control a fixed value depends on the ultimate goal of the real economy.

"For example, economic growth and inflation, these indicators should be more important than M2, but at the same time, we must ensure flexibility."

It is understood that the government work report that this year's broad money M2 is expected to grow by about 12%, compared with 13% in 2014 and 12.2% in real terms.

By the end of December 2014, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 122 trillion and 840 billion yuan.

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How can the gem create a new high? The growth of the GEM listed companies is considered to be an important factor in promoting the growth of the GEM market.

According to the requirements of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, as of February 28th, all 421 companies on GEM have disclosed the major financial data in 2014 through performance bulletin, annual report and listing notice.

Statistics show that 421 companies in the 2014 gem have achieved a total operating income of 343 billion 146 million yuan, an average of 815 million yuan per company, an increase of 27.03% over the same period last year. The total realized net profit was 39 billion 353 million yuan, with an average of 93 million yuan per company, an increase of 22.71% over the same period last year.

The growth rate of operating income and net profit is the highest in the past three years.

In addition, the growth rate of net profit of listed companies on GEM in 2014 was close to the growth rate of operating income for the first time in nearly three years, and realized the synchronous growth of profits and revenues.

In the current macroeconomic downturn, the growth of operating income and net profit of GEM companies can be more than 20%, which is indeed commendable.

Nevertheless, the performance of GEM companies is not enough to support the share price of GEM companies.

Because from last year's low position, the gem index rose from 1210 to 2014.79 in March 5th, and its overall growth rose more than 66%, which rose far beyond the growth of GEM companies.

Moreover, from the index of average price earnings ratio of GEM companies, the stock price of GEM companies is obviously full of bubbles.

According to the data released by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, as of March 4th, the average price earnings ratio of GEM companies was 82.13 times.

This data is not only much higher than the average price earnings ratio of the Shanghai listed companies 16.42 times, but also far higher than the Shenzhen stock market's 27.40 times price earnings ratio, which is also higher than that of the medium and small board 50.17 times the P / E ratio.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq composite index has only 26 times earnings.

It is obvious that gem shares are full of bubbles.

Moreover, from the perspective of market rate, the growth enterprise market is also "too high". At present, it is 6.08 times, and the total A share is 2.23 times, the small and medium board is 4.1 times, and the Shanghai A share is 1.86 times.

The sales rate of gem is also very high, reaching 9.4 times, far exceeding the market rate of 1.59 times of all A shares.

Over the same period, the sales rate of the main board and the small and medium board is 1.33 times and 3.22 times that of the gem, that is, the market share of the gem is 7 times that of the motherboard.

Therefore, it is obvious that the growth of GEM companies is not enough to support their stock prices.

This is not just about the growth of share price of GEM companies, which is far more than the growth of performance. Even some high performance Growth Company, its so-called high growth is based on its previous performance decline or profit margin.

Like the eastern fortune, 2014's performance increased by more than 32 times over the same period last year.

However, its earnings per share in 2013 were only 0.0041 yuan, and 32 times earnings in 2014, and its earnings per share were only 0.137 yuan.

This is clearly not enough to support its share price of more than 40 yuan per share.

Because of this, the East Asian wealth has more than 300 times earnings.