The Recovery Rate Of Enterprises Rose Faster, And PMI Increased In March.

In February 29, 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

In February 2020, China's purchasing managers' index was significantly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, down 14.3 percentage points from last month, and the non manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from last month. At the same time, the survey results show that with the CPC Central Committee and the State Council coordinating the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the recovery rate of enterprises is rising faster, and production and business activities are being restored orderly. As of February 25th, the total number of large and medium-sized enterprises in the national survey of purchasing managers was 78.9%, of which 85.6% were large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.

　　 1. The purchasing managers index of manufacturing industry contracted significantly.

In February, the PMI of the manufacturing industry was 35.7%, which was down sharply from last month. The main characteristics of this month's manufacturing PMI are: first, the industries that support basic livelihood are relatively less affected. In the 21 manufacturing industries, PMI fell to a contraction zone this month, but the industries were affected differently. Among them, chemical fiber, general equipment, special equipment, automobile and other industries PMI fell to less than 30%; under the support of stable production and supply policy, PMI of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea industry to maintain the basic living needs of the people is maintained at more than 42%, and the PMI of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry providing health and medical care is 39.7%, which is higher than the overall level of manufacturing industry. The impact is relatively small. Two, the new order index is smaller than the production index. The production index and the new order index were 27.8% and 29.3% respectively, 23.5 and 22.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the new order index is 1.5 percentage points higher than the production index, indicating that the demand for manufacturing industry is relatively good. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the new orders index of 15 industries, such as agricultural and sideline products processing, food and alcoholic beverage refining, tea and medicine, were higher than the production index, especially the new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing industry is still expanding. Three, the import and export pressure of manufacturing industry is increasing. The new export orders index and import index were 28.7% and 31.9% respectively, down 20 and 17.1 percentage points from the previous month. Some investigation enterprises reflected that the situation of order cancellation and delayed delivery increased by the epidemic situation. Four, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises generally dropped. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 36.3%, 35.5% and 34.1% respectively, down 14.1, 14.6 and 14.5 percentage points from last month.

　　 Two, non manufacturing business activity index fell to the critical point.

In February, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 29.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from last month.

The service industry is down. The service business activity index was 30.1%, down 23 percentage points from last month. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 19 business activities were located in the contraction area, but the financial industry business activity index was 50.1%, continuing to expand in the range, and played an important role in the prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development. Although the business activity index of Telecom and Internet software industry has dropped somewhat, but under the support of new formats and technologies such as cloud office, online education and telemedicine, it is obviously better than the overall level of service industry, which is higher than the 13.2 and 11.3 percentage points of the business activity index of the service industry respectively. Demand for consumer goods, such as transportation, accommodation, catering, tourism and residential services, declined sharply, and business activity index dropped to below 20%.

Construction and production activities slowed down. The construction business activity index and the new order index were 26.6% and 23.8% respectively, down 33.1 and 30 percentage points from the previous month. From the market expectation, the business activity anticipation index is 41.8%, down 22.6 percentage points from last month, but the civil engineering construction industry activity activity anticipation index is 51.8%, maintains above the critical point, indicates that the related enterprise has the confidence to the industry restoration development.

　　 Three, the current enterprise recovery rate is rising faster, will promote the March purchasing managers index rise.

In February, the composite PMI output index was 28.9%, down 24.1 percentage points from last month, and China's enterprises' production and operation activities slowed down sharply. Manufacturing industry production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constituted the composite PMI output index, were 27.8% and 29.6% respectively.

Although the outbreak of new crown pneumonia has caused a great impact on the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises in the short term, at present, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the epidemic has been initially curbed, and the negative impact on production has been gradually weakened, and the recovery rate of enterprises has been rising faster and the market confidence has been steadily restored. Purchasing managers' survey shows that the recovery rate of large and medium enterprises will rise to 90.8% at the end of March, of which 94.7% of manufacturing industry is up 11.9 and 9.1 percentage points respectively. Recently, a series of policies and measures, such as tax reduction, tax reduction, financial services, rent reduction, stable job subsidies, especially support for small and medium enterprises, will be implemented step by step, which will effectively relieve the difficulties brought by the epidemic to the production and operation of enterprises, further boost the confidence of enterprises and speed up the pace of resumption of enterprises' recovery, and it is expected that China's purchasing managers' index will improve in March.