Oversupply And Oversupply, When Polyester Staple Falls Down For A While

Macroscopically, the multinational central bank's counter cyclical adjustment policy has not prevented the market declining in the short term, and the risk of large fluctuation in stock market, foreign exchange market and bulk commodity market is still large, and the public health events abroad have accelerated development trend. The market is generally pessimistic about the economic forecast. 。 While the market is sluggish, the industry is looking forward to the turning point. However, the recovery of polyester staple market depends on the adjustment of the industry itself besides the support of the big environment.

Supply side:

According to long Zhong information statistics, as of Thursday, the average stock of polyester staple enterprises was about 12.4 days, which increased significantly compared with the same period last year, while the industry starting rate has been raised from low to 78.91% at present, slightly lower than the same period last year. Due to the impact of public health incidents, there has been a parallel phenomenon of low start-up and rapid storage in the past two months. In short, demand stagnation.

In terms of inventory, although there have been many promotions and shipments in the industry, it has eased the stock pressure of short staple enterprises, but procurement is mostly the bottom copy behavior of traders or downstream factories, resulting in the transformation of short staple factory inventory to downstream social inventory. In the lower reaches of the lower start-up, a considerable proportion of staple fibers have not been converted into downstream products such as yarns, and the overall inventory pressure in the industry is too large.

In terms of start-up, since the low starting point in early February, the overall level of construction has been basically the same as that of the same period last year after repeated negative actions in the industry.

Demand side:

As for domestic trade, the main downstream demand of polyester staple fiber comes from the spinning mill. Comparing the start of YISHION polyester yarn with the start of polyester staple fiber, from August to December last year, the start of polyester staple fiber basically remained at 80%-90%, while the pure polyester yarn started to keep at 80%-95% at the same time. The difference between the two was not great. Industry supply and demand situation. Looking at the present, the start-up rate of polyester staple fiber has increased to 79.8%, while the pure polyester yarn operating rate has only increased to 59.67%, which is about 20% lower than that of PET staple fiber. It is understood that the order situation of the cotton mill has slowed down with the further ferment of foreign public health incidents. Under this pressure, it is quite difficult for the cotton mill to increase the operating rate in the short term to match the polyester staple fiber in the short term. From the point of view of traders, a considerable portion of Dacron staple stocks have been absorbed in the falling market, and continued downturns did not make them profitable. They are more cautious about future purchases.

In terms of foreign trade, Southeast Asia is an important export place for PET staple fibers in China. Since the global public health incident, the smaller economies have to withstand the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in addition to the risk of shrinking consumption. Indonesia is an important importer of PET staple fibers in China. Since February 21st, its currency has depreciated by about 18%, which directly increases its import cost. With the rapid decline of polyester staple fiber prices, Indonesia has increased its holding costs. It is reported that some foreign trade orders are now breaking the contract, and the demand for foreign trade also has a downward trend.

In conclusion, polyester staple fiber has fallen into a predicament of oversupply, and there is no obvious signal that polyester staple fiber will get rid of this predicament, and when will usher in the dawn. In the short term, besides the hope of stabilizing polyester raw materials, the industry's self adjustment is essential, and the fundamental driving force for the healthy development of the final industry comes from the revive of terminal consumption, but this needs to be over. Cheng.