Recent Trend Of Zheng Cotton Flat, How To Grasp Next?

Recently, the market has calmed down, and the fluctuation space of cotton price has narrowed obviously. It seems to be choosing a new direction. It is possible to move up or down. The market is still cautious about this, believing that any black swan and grey rhinoceros may happen under the situation of continuous Sino US trade friction.

After the early hot frying incident was calm, the cotton price was stabilized at around 14800 yuan / ton, which is also the cost of most enterprises, and obviously felt strong support. As for whether it can be broken later, the probability must exist, and certain risk factors have not been removed. In addition, it should be noted that now entering the stage of spring ploughing and sowing, the risk factors faced by cotton production side are also increasing. For agricultural products, weather is an eternal topic. Unlike other growing crops, cotton has a longer production period, and the greater the weather risk it faces. In each stage of emergence, flowering, budding and boll opening, weather disturbance will bring uncertain risks to its yield.

There is also a special situation to be explained this year, which is the relationship between grain price and cotton price. Now the advantage of grain price is higher than that of cotton. It is worth paying attention to whether cotton farmers will abandon cotton for grain. This is not only a problem facing China, but also exists in other countries in the world. Moreover, the severity of this problem this year is obviously higher than that in previous years.

The US Department of agriculture's intended cotton planting area report was released yesterday. In 2021, the intended planting area of cotton in the United States will be 12 million acres, with a year-on-year decrease of less than 1%. The area of upland cotton is 11.9 million acres, slightly increasing year-on-year. The area of Pima cotton is 142000 acres, a year-on-year decrease of 30%. It is lower than the market expectation. Of course, this is only a forecast. The actual result depends on the later data. In addition to the United States, India, Brazil and other countries are also worth paying attention to, after all, the output and export volume of these countries are very large.

From the perspective of supply and inventory, China's inventory scale is still large. There are still a large number of cotton in the warehouse area of Xinjiang. There is no problem with supply. It is unrealistic to expect a good performance of cotton price in the short term. Of course, it is not possible to continue to fall deeply. After all, the disk has been digested long ago, and the large inventory is not a problem of one or two days. Therefore, the cotton price probability rate continues to fluctuate.

Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe is on the rise again. Many countries have extended the blockade time, and the epidemic situation in the United States seems to have begun to escalate for the third time. This is not conducive to consumption, and it is the same to cotton and other bulk commodities. The decline in the market once again confirms that the control of the epidemic situation has a significant impact on commodity prices.

No matter the commodity is in a bull market or a bear market, there are many differences in time. The bigger the divergence is, the bigger the market will be. Only by grasping the main contradiction can we grasp the main melody of price operation.

Now the cotton price stabilizes, the author thinks that this is a good thing, which is conducive to enterprise procurement. When the price rises and falls sharply, the enterprise does not dare to release the order production. In the first two months of 2021, China's economic indicators showed excellent performance. The industrial added value of the whole country increased by 35.1% compared with the same period in 2019, the investment in fixed assets increased by 35.0%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 33.8%. Many experts predict that China's GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 15% in the first quarter, or even 20%. It is the general trend for the economy to improve after the epidemic, and the consumer market will also have a very good performance. China has already made a good start for other countries. With the rapid promotion of vaccination, the foreign economy will gradually step out of the dark moment. (wood)