The Average Transaction Price Per Ton Exceeds 210000 Yuan: Silicon Material Becomes The "Achilles Heel" Of PV Parity?

"Don't talk about the" 6.30 rush "this year. If it goes on like this, it may disappear on December 31." Talking about the phenomenon that the photovoltaic industry chain continues to rise recently, the person in charge of a domestic photovoltaic manufacturing enterprise is worried.

June 30 and December 31 are important time points for China's photovoltaic industry. Due to the policy limitation of grid connection subsidy time limit, domestic photovoltaic projects are centralized connected to the grid at these two time points, and the demand is strong. But at present, the industry generally believes that this year will not appear "6.30 rush loading tide.".

The reason is not due to the sluggish terminal demand as it was in 2018. The rising price of silicon material is setting off a serious "internal friction" in the industrial chain, which seems to be the "Achilles heel" hindering the process of photovoltaic parity.

"Silicon material prices go back to ten years ago, and component prices go back to three years ago. Downstream developers can only take a wait-and-see attitude. They are not in the mood to talk about" rush to install. " An executive of a module enterprise told the 21st century economic reporter one detail. In previous years, the Dragon Boat Festival met with a "rush to install on June 30". Photovoltaic enterprises almost did not have a holiday. They worked overtime to sprint at full power. Many companies took the Dragon Boat Festival holiday this year.

On June 9, the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) released the latest price data of polycrystalline silicon materials. This week, the latest average transaction price of domestic single crystal compact materials rose to 213100 yuan / ton, up 150.71% compared with the beginning of the year.

When will the price rise of silicon materials stop?

The industry's sensitivity to polysilicon material has reached the point of "all kinds of soldiers".

On June 8, a fire broke out in the 997 siloxane packaging workshop of Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 200000 tons, which added a fire to the recent "silicon color change" photovoltaic ring.

As an upstream enterprise mainly engaged in the production and sales of silicone and industrial silicon, Hesheng silicon supplies industrial silicon raw materials to polysilicon materials enterprises including Daquan new energy. As soon as the accident happened, some people called out the pessimistic remarks that "the price of silicon material may exceed 300 yuan / kg". However, a silicon material enterprise source told the 21st century economic report that the Hesheng silicon industry accident will not affect the supply of industrial silicon, let alone the supply of photovoltaic silicon material.

The industry's concern about Hesheng silicon industry accident is the extreme reflection of silicon material price fluctuation in the photovoltaic industry. This episode just shows that the rising price of silicon materials has blocked the willingness of downstream production and manufacturing.

According to the latest data released by the silicon industry branch, the average transaction price of domestic polysilicon materials has officially exceeded 210000 yuan / ton.

This week, the average transaction price of domestic single crystal re feeding was 216800 yuan / ton, up 2.31% on a weekly basis; The average transaction price of single crystal densified material was 213100 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.01% on a weekly basis. According to the latest analysis article of the silicon industry branch, the reason why the price of silicon materials continues to rise is attributed to the fact that the overall demand for silicon materials has not been reversed.

However, in the view of the person in charge of the above-mentioned head photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises, some silicon manufacturers suspected of price speculation are to blame. "The weekly pricing measures currently adopted have caused price panic to a certain extent.".

According to the bidding information of a domestic polysilicon material manufacturer obtained by the reporter of 21st century economic report in recent two months, the winning price of polysilicon material increased by about 33% from the end of April to the beginning of this month. It is worth mentioning that the polysilicon material manufacturer organized the bidding in the form of weekly scattered orders. Among them, some undelivered silicon materials are renegotiated according to the latest market price, and the delivery period is extended to the next one or two months.

"If suppliers of silicon materials and wafers do not deliver goods in time, as long as there is a delay, the price can be changed and the new market price will be charged." According to the senior executives of the above-mentioned component enterprises, the current situation of the industry seems to be that the market terminal demand does not match the upstream silicon material capacity, but in fact, there is hoarding of intermediate traders and all links of the industrial chain, boosting the price rise.

So, does the end market demand this year match the silicon material supply? LV Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter that in 2021, the domestic supply of silicon materials including imports will be 580000 tons, which can supply about 193gw of module production. According to the agency's forecast, this year's global PV installed capacity is in the range of 160-200gw, and the supply and demand are balanced.

In fact, in the face of the rising silicon price, all parties are discussing when the price inflection point can occur“ At present, the price increase of the material end of the photovoltaic industry is temporary. GCL has entered the photovoltaic industry for many years and has gone through the fourth cycle. I hope you will not rush into the market. " Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL group, said in an interview with the media during this SNEC exhibition that it is expected that by the end of next year, the market tension of the whole silicon material will ease and the price will drop rapidly.

Lu Jinbiao believes that the inflection point of silicon material price is difficult to predict, and that the initiative of "restraining the price rise of silicon material" lies in the hands of several leading enterprises in the downstream

How to deal with the downstream?

The downstream initiative to lower the operating rate may be one of the feasible measures to lower the price of silicon materials.

The 21st century economic reporter has noticed that many leading enterprises have begun to reduce the operating rate due to the cost pressure caused by the rise of industrial chain prices. According to our understanding, a domestic component head enterprise is planning to reduce the operating rate to 40%, and the start-up rate of a head battery chip enterprise has dropped significantly to 60% to cope with the pressure of rising prices of raw materials upstream. At the same time, in the face of the new prices of silicon materials and silicon wafers, some downstream purchasers began to resist high prices. Some enterprise personage even pointed out to the 21st century economic report that under the background of price increase, the price of contracts signed frequently changed, and "the spirit of the contract between enterprises has disappeared.".

To be sure, the downstream adjustment of operating rate can indeed bring certain impact on upstream raw material prices. The article published by the silicon industry branch on June 9 pointed out that some silicon wafer enterprises chose to actively control or reduce the purchase volume when the silicon material price was higher than the expected price, so as to adjust the price trend of the industrial chain market by reducing the demand, which caused "the price increase of polysilicon this week has narrowed.".

"But even so, there are still some enterprises that have no rice to put into the pot, and most of the silicon materials enterprises have basically signed orders in June this week, and even some orders have been scheduled for delivery to August." The silicon industry branch believes that although the adjustment of the procurement mode of some silicon wafer enterprises has alleviated the tense situation of short supply to a certain extent, the reduced excess demand has not reversed the overall situation of short supply of silicon materials.

"It is expected that the price pressure of the industrial chain will transform in the silicon link in the short term, and supply and demand in the polysilicon sector will not be readjusted until the silicon operating rate or price begins to decline." The silicon industry branch said.

However, this will test whether the downstream manufacturers can "bear the pain to give up". LV Jinbiao told the 21st century economic reporter, "only if we stop the surplus downstream capacity first, and do not rush for silicon materials, the price will naturally fall. But the problem is that no one wants to stop first."

In fact, in all links of the whole industrial chain, some enterprises with PV power station project in the terminal also have strong resistance“ Now many downstream investors have begun to unite. Maybe we will resist the endless price increase, because if we do not boycott it, the whole industry will be reversing, which will affect the installed capacity. " The person in charge of a domestic photovoltaic power plant enterprise told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

The resistance of terminal enterprises is gradually rising, which has its "confidence".

The reporter of 21st century economic report found that after the National Energy Administration issued the notice on issues related to the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2021 on May 20 this year, it interpreted the problem of "how to implement the guaranteed grid connection scale in 2021" -- the stock projects that failed to be connected to the grid during the year will be coordinated by the provincial energy authorities, It will be directly included in the scope of supportability grid connection in subsequent years.

In this regard, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association believes that "this is a major change in the industry's competent policies: it means that the time limit for developers to connect to the grid is extended from one year to two years." The photovoltaic association further pointed out that "under the current situation of soaring raw material prices, the one-year grace period gives the development enterprises more sufficient time to hand over the project leading right to the development enterprises, which is conducive to avoiding the ups and downs of the industry."

The 21st century economic reporter has noticed that the government's intervention in the irrational price rise of silicon materials may accelerate. On May 27, when replying to the letter on controlling the issue of new energy modules, the State Energy Administration said, "we attach great importance to the impact of the price rise of the new energy industry chain on the photovoltaic industry. At present, we are working with relevant parties to study the management and price policies of the photovoltaic power generation industry in 2021. The next step is to promote the introduction of policies and create relatively clear policy boundaries for the development of the industry, Promote the steady and orderly development of the industry. "