Recycled PET: Is "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Gone Or Delayed?

In traditional sense, the peak season of "gold, nine, silver and ten" is coming. The demand for recycled bottle chips is determined by the light and peak season of the largest downstream regenerated chemical fiber of recycled PET. At present, it is approaching the end of August, and the weather is getting colder. However, the price of recycled PET tricolor brick and cold water blue and white tablets does not rise but falls. Sporadic epidemic is still a drag on downstream demand. As for whether the renewable market will rise or fall in September under special circumstances this year, it may be difficult for businesses in the industry to reach an agreement on the mentality of businesses in the industry under weak market conditions.

In fact, the demand theory of the weak season, and the actual trend of the market can not be completely unified. Moreover, the economic situation at home and abroad this year is complex and changeable. The prosperity degree of the recycling industry is obviously lower than that of the same period last year, showing a situation that the peak season is not prosperous, the off-season is even weaker, and the boundary between the low and peak seasons is fuzzy. In addition, there is a saying in the textile industry that the consumption of chemical fiber products increased in autumn and winter in the past years. Secondly, for export-oriented textiles, orders need to be delivered before Christmas, most of which are at the end of November. However, due to the rise in sea freight and the shortage of containers this year, some European and American Christmas orders have been issued 3-4 months in advance. Therefore, in theory, the market demand will increase in 1990, but the actual market trend may be biased.

The proportion of export and domestic sales of China's terminal textile market is about 3:7. However, since 2019, with the continuous upgrading of economic and trade frictions, and the decline of domestic and foreign consumption power under the shadow of public health events, China's textile orders have shrunk significantly last year, and this year is even worse. After investigating the packing stations, cleaning plants and recycled chemical fiber plants in the industry, the author concludes the following viewpoints:

1. Packing station: low price, moderate stock

At present, as the purchase price of clean bricks is still hovering at a low level, the packing station has a positive intention of hoarding goods and tends to conduct cash transactions. The intention to control the goods is reluctant to sell, and the cleaning plant adjusts the purchase price. According to the scale of the packing station, the inventory of bottle bricks ranges from 3000 to 5000 tons. The larger packing stations plan to stock up in September and ship them after October. Taking Guangdong packing station as an example, the cost of packing clean brick is about 1000 yuan / ton, and the price of woolen bottle is 2600 yuan / ton. Under the background of meager profit and even hanging upside down, the packing station is more willing to pack the bottle into chemical fiber material (blue and white brick mixed with oil pot), or directly crush and clean it into cold water. The cost is around 700-800 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction price of cold water blue and white sheet is 3600 yuan / ton, The profit margin is 200-300 yuan / ton, which is also the overall quantity of net bottle bricks in the industry is not enough.

2. Cleaning plant: different mentality, cautious game

At present, the recycling PET bottle chip cleaning plant has different opinions on whether the market in September and October is up or down, and the difficulty in purchasing is still the normal market in the near future. On the one hand, they are worried that the coming autumn and winter season will not be able to maintain production due to the shortage of goods. On the other hand, they are worried about the insufficient demand follow-up, and excessive raw material hoarding will cause greater financial pressure.

The bullish side is mostly manufacturers with stock plan in autumn and winter, and the industry accounts for about 65%. They think that at present, the inventory of merchants in the industry is limited, and the overall consumption of residents is weak this year. Even in the peak season of supply, the level of bottle and brick bottle pieces is lower than that of the same period in previous years. In addition, with the weather getting colder, the traditional peak season of woolen bottles still has about one month. If we do not stock up on raw materials at this time, it will be more difficult to purchase in autumn and winter, and even affect normal production, Therefore, in September, there is no lack of hidden increase in the purchase price of cleaning plants, but the range may be limited. The adjustment range is expected to be 100-200 yuan / ton.

The bearish or stable side is mostly the manufacturers with the attitude of using and taking, and the industry accounts for about 35%. They think that there should be a small upsurge of demand in the lower reaches of the river in September and October this year, but the duration is not clear. However, the weak downstream demand will continue to drag down the recycled PET market, and some terminal orders have been issued and delivered in advance, which will limit the acceptance of new orders by weaving enterprises to a certain extent. Therefore, the bearish mentality of the fourth quarter is not reduced, and there is no obvious stock plan under the risk aversion mentality.

3. Recycled chemical fiber factory: stock up properly and watch its change

In the middle and late August, the recycled hollow enterprises represented by Zhejiang Huatong Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. increased the purchase price of raw brick and cold water sheet by 100-200 yuan / ton after digesting a wave of inventory funds. However, most chemical fiber factories said that it was not easy to ship the products. The narrow adjustment of quotation under different mentality had limited influence on the market, and the market mentality was still on the wait-and-see attitude.

On the whole, the editor suggests that you take a rational view of this year's "golden nine silver ten". In September, the domestic recycled PET market trend may be stable and small, and the operation will be stagnant. Each factory may adjust the purchase price slightly according to its own production and inventory situation, and the range is expected to be 100-200 yuan / ton. Under the weak market situation, a substantial adjustment will inevitably lead to the increase of the downstream customers' resistance, As a result, it may fall into the bad cycle of price war again. In October, it is suggested that more attention should be paid to the recovery of domestic and foreign trade orders, as well as the downstream inventory transmission of the terminal. In terms of price, there are some small opportunities to explore the rise.